Predictive modeling of groundwater potential zones for water security in semi-arid Mediterranean region

The pressing need for solid, data-driven frameworks concerning sustainable water resource management is highlighted by escalating water consumption in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, an integrated methodology merging remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was presented. This combined approach was used to systematically delineate groundwater potential across the Mjez El Beb delegation. The extraction of thematic layers from satellite imagery and geospatial datasets constituted the initial phase. Subsequently, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) established specific factor weights. The characterization of spatial variations in groundwater potential required an evaluation of eight fundamental elements. These variables included lithology, slope, lineament density, drainage density, land use/land cover, precipitation, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and NDVI. Distinct heterogeneity was displayed by the final Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ) map. Furthermore, prime locations for sustainable exploitation were emphasized by this spatial model. The overall stability of the design was verified through strict validation against empirical borehole data. A high predictive capability was proven by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.824. Ultimately, a repeatable structure for rapid and economical groundwater assessment is supplied by this investigation. Other arid and semi-arid territories can readily implement this approach, as predictive accuracy is substantially improved by merging remote sensing, GIS, and MCDM. Consequently, evidence-based decision-making for long-term water resource planning against future water scarcity is firmly supported by these analytical tools.