Ezgi Demiral
The agricultural sector is one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change due to its direct dependence on climatic conditions. Rising temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, droughts, and extreme weather events directly affect agricultural productivity. Although Turkiye is rich in climatic diversity, the majority of its agricultural activities take place in regions that are highly dependent on rainfall and temperature conditions. Recently, extreme weather events, such as rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, storms, and frost, have also increased pressure on agricultural production.This study investigates the main factors affecting cereal yield in Turkiye using time series analysis. Based on data from 1991 to 2022, the effects of average temperature, annual precipitation, fertiliser consumption, and the number of tractors on cereal production are examined. The logarithm of cereal yield is the dependent variable, whereas climate indicators, fertiliser consumption, and the level of agricultural mechanisation are included as independent variables. Because the variables are stationary at different levels, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used.Analysis of the test results revealed a long-term co-integration relationship among the variables. When evaluated in terms of long-term results, increases in the number of tractors and fertiliser consumption have a statistically significant and positive effect on cereal production. Temperatures, however, were found to have a negative effect. The effect of rainfall has not been found to be statistically significant. These findings indicate that agricultural production in Turkiye is highly sensitive to climate change, highlighting the importance of climate adaptation strategies and mechanisation investments in agricultural policy.