The Impact Of Esg-Based Sustainability Uncertainty Shocks On Energy Futures Markets: The Case Of Turkey

In the contemporary world, the impact of sustainability policies, which are comprised of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors, on firms has reached universal dimensions, causing various problems in financial markets. This situation has not only affected investor behavior but has also profoundly impacted energy markets. In this context, energy futures markets have been affected by both the environmental consequences of fossil fuel production and the risks and uncertainties related to sustainability. Based on this, the study aims to examine the impact of ESG-based sustainability-uncertainty shocks on energy futures markets. The study uses a 20-year dataset from November 1, 2005, to July 1, 2025, and utilizes machine learning, VAR, and GARCH methods in the analysis of the data. The results show that increases in Brent and crude oil prices lead to a decrease in carbon emissions.