Mami Takadate, Rihito Aizawa, Yasushi Numata, Atsushi Marugame, Jyunya Iwazaki, Masao Ueki, Takayuki Takahashi, Kaori Ono, Kotaro Tsutsumi, Hayato Takeda, Jun Akatsuka, Yuki Endo, Yuka Toyama, Ryuji Ohashi, Akira Shimizu, Go Kimura, Hironori Haga, Takashi Kobayashi, Yukihiro Kondo, Takashi Mizowaki, Yoichiro Yamamoto, Toyonori Tsuzuki
Locally advanced prostate cancer (PCa) is associated with a high recurrence rate even after curative treatment. We aimed to develop a precise risk model by integrating the status of intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P) and the International Society of Urological Pathology Grade Group (ISUP GG) with deep learning (DL)-based grading to predict clinical recurrence after intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Furthermore, we identified key pathological features associated with IDC-P. We retrospectively analyzed 165 patients treated with high-dose IMRT for high- and very high-risk PCa at two institutions. Pathological features were extracted from hematoxylin and eosin-stained specimens from 100 cases using a DL-based model, from which an expert pathologist selected 10 cancer-related features. The area under the curve (AUC) values derived from split-sample validation for predicting clinical recurrence using ISUP GG and IDC-P status were 0.732 and 0.735, respectively, and 0.789 for their combination. Integrating 10 key features further improved the AUC to 0.850, with robust performance in external validation (AUC = 0.833). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) in clinical recurrence between high- and low-risk prediction groups. Additionally, we identified four DL-derived pathological features that are significantly associated with IDC-P (p < 0.05). Incorporation of ISUP GG, IDC-P status, and DL-derived pathological features improves the prediction of clinical recurrence after high-dose IMRT in high- and very high-risk PCa. Our findings underscore the clinical significance of IDC-P and support optimized treatment strategies.