Analysis of the Differentiation of Development of Russia’s Federal Districts

Object. The relevance of this study is determined by the persistent problem of interregional inequality, which continues to exert a destabilizing influence on the integrity of the country’s economic space despite the implementation of a number of state equalization programs. Managing regional development differentiation and maintaining unevenness in the range of stimulating impact remains an important challenge of the regional policy. Purpose of the study. To provide a statistical assessment of spatial disparities and socio-economic differentiation across the federal districts of the Russian Federation during 2000–2023. Methods. The paper proposes and applies a three-component system of indexes comprising spatial concentration (SPCI), socio-economic polarization (SEPI), and spatial mobility (SPMI). The proposed framework makes it possible not only to record the scale of spatial unevenness, but also to diagnose its directional vector. Using a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with fixed effects and lagged variables, critical threshold values of the indexes were estimated, the excess of which signals the transition of unevenness into the de-stimulating phase. The methodological framework also includes formula for the regional development imbalance, which makes it possible to distinguish four types of districts by the nature of the effect of spatial unevenness on economic growth. The empirical analysis is based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) covering 82 regions of the Russian Federation over the period 2000 - 2023. Results. The results indicate a substantial increase in inter-district differentiation across key socio-economic indexes during the study period. The estimated threshold values made it possible to identify critical levels of concentration, polarization, and mobility associated with a transition from stimulating to growth-discouraging territorial unevenness of development. Conclusions. The study develops policy recommendations regarding the application of regional policy instruments for different categories of federal districts. The findings may be used in the design and implementation of regional development policies within the framework of the spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation through 2030.