K. E. Chikunov
In conditions of high uncertainty and poor formalization of social and economic systems cognitive modeling is becoming a key tool in decision-making support. However, the quality of obtained models directly depends on trustworthiness and coordination of initial expert appraisals. The article advances a brand new method of formation and verification of expert appraisals based on 9-level 3D scale, which can simultaneously take into account the importance of initial concept, power and direction of its impact on other elements of the system. To raise inner agreement of the model verification process through analyzing consonance/dissonance is introduced, which can identify and correct internal logic contradictions in expert’s opinions. The mathematic tool of providing appraisals is realized in the form of interval values, which can allow us to formalize the degree of expert confidence in his/her views and raise sustainability of the model to some errors. Pilot research confirmed that the advanced method can improve inner agreement of the cognitive model by 37% and drop subjective component in expert appraisals by 42% in comparison with conventional approaches. The given methodology can be used in tasks of regional economy, strategic management and other fields, where decision-making is needed in conditions of high uncertainty.