Ecological and Management Drivers of Population Fluctuations in the Goitered Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) Across Iran.

Understanding the ecological and anthropogenic determinants of ungulate population dynamics is essential for conservation in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. We analysed 16 years (2007-2022) of census data from 27 protected areas across Iran to identify climatic, human land-use, and management factors influencing population growth of the goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa). Annual exponential growth rates were estimated by regressing the natural logarithm of population size against year. The best-supported model explained 46% of the variation in population growth (R 2 = 0.46, adjusted R 2 = 0.41). Population growth was negatively associated with a protection component reflecting longer protection history, higher protection status, and greater management infrastructure, consistent with density-dependent regulation in established reserves. Growth was positively associated with a human land-use component describing wells and springs in surrounding landscapes, suggesting that water availability beyond reserve boundaries may contribute to greater resource availability. Climatic principal components and protected-area classes representing broad climatic-productivity regimes were not detected as independent predictors of population growth within the analytical framework and spatial and temporal scales examined. These results highlight the importance of water availability, management legacy, and landscape context for understanding population dynamics and informing adaptive, landscape-scale conservation planning.