Exploring the carbon emission reduction potentials of low-carbon technologies in China’s copper industry

Primary copper (Cu) production is highly carbon-intensive because mining, smelting, and refining require substantial energy inputs, posing a major challenge to the industry’s low-carbon transition. Although low-carbon technologies are widely regarded as essential for decarbonization, the costs, benefits, and emission-reduction effects associated with different levels of technology adoption remain unclear, thereby hindering the development of effective decarbonization strategies for the Cu industry. This study evaluates 44 low-carbon technologies for primary Cu production and identifies optimal technology packages and adoption pathways for China's Cu industry. The analysis yields three main findings. (1) At the technical level, molten-salt heat storage and exchange technology demonstrates substantial mitigation potential and strong economic performance, making it a priority option for low-carbon technological transformation. (2) At the firm level, firms with strong investment capacity for low-carbon technologies (≤ 2,600 CNY/tCu) can adopt the most comprehensive technology packages, contributing approximately 62% of the cumulative carbon emission reductions (CERs) in China’s Cu industry from 2025 to 2050. These firms are therefore expected to play a leading role in sectoral decarbonization. (3) At the industry level, deploying technology packages tailored to firms with different investment capacities could enable China’s Cu industry to achieve cumulative CERs of approximately 190 Mt CO2-eq by 2050, with a corresponding cumulative investment cost of approximately 20 billion CNY. This study provides decision support for screening and implementing low-carbon technologies in the Cu industry.