Temporal trend and factors associated with physical disability due to leprosyl: a time series study, Brazil, 2014-2023.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend and factors associated with physical disability due to leprosy in Brazil from 2014 to 2023. METHODS: Time series study subdivided into the analysis of operational indicators and factors associated with the degree of disability due to leprosy in Brazil. The data were extracted from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN). The incidence rate of leprosy with grade 2 physical disability per 1,000,000 inhabitants was calculated. The associated factors were measured by logistic regression, which generates the odds ratio (OR), the trend by Prais- Winsten regression, and the annual percentage change. Results: A total of 228,577 cases of leprosy were analyzed in Brazil between 2014 and 2023. The Central-West and North regions presented rates of 19.61/1 million and 19.12/1 million, respectively. The annual percentage change was 6.0 (95%CI 5.1; 6.9) for new cases with grade 2 disability in Brazil. The factors associated with grade 1 disability were: ≥60 years (OR 3.36; 95%CI 1.03; 3.15), tuberculoid form (OR 0.95; 95%CI 0.89; 1.04), and low education level (OR 1.50; 95%CI 1.03; 1.41). For grade 2, the associated factors were male sex (OR 1.56; 95%CI 1.02; 1.51), pregnancy (OR 1.11; 95%CI 0.86; 1.13), and multibacillary form (OR 1.99; 95%CI 1.14; 1.54). CONCLUSION: In summary, lower chances of presenting grade 1 or grade 2 physical disabilities were associated with female sex, tuberculoid clinical form, residence in the Southeast and South regions, and higher education level.