Sensitivity Analysis on Business Profitability Risk of Wind Power Plants due to Additional Safety Shutdowns associated with Regulatory Changes

In Japan, wind turbines shall be subjected to a safety shutdown immediately after lightning strikes to assure their integrity according to the requirement by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's ‘Interpretation of Technical Standards for Wind Power Generation’. The incidents that occurred on 2 May 2025, where a wind turbine blade broke and fell, resulting in the death of a resident passing nearby, could heighten demands for stricter requirements regarding safety shutdown measures in the future. This study therefore conducts a quantitative profitability risk analysis of wind power plants that takes uncertainty into account using sensitivity analysis, in order to clarify the risk that safety shutdowns pose to business profitability.