Educational Expectations in the Context of Migration and Institutions

Abstract This study examines how institutionalized performance signals, namely teacher recommendations and grades, are associated with parental expectations at the end of primary school in Germany. We investigate whether these associations vary by families’ immigrant background and refugee status as well as across institutional settings that differentially regulate educational transitions. Analyses drew on data from the IQB-Bildungstrend 2021. Linear probability models showed significant associations between both performance signals and parental expectations. However, the link between grades and expectations was weaker among immigrant families relative to non-immigrant families. More strongly regulated institutional settings, such as those with binding teacher recommendations or formal grade thresholds, were associated with lower parental expectations. Yet, no consistent interaction patterns emerged between immigrant background, institutional setting, and performance signals. Overall, the findings indicate that institutionalized performance signals are linked to parental expectations, but that the strength of these associations can differ across family groups.