Associations of the exact-overlap Farm-to-Diet Coupling Index and production diversity with market dependence among smallholder farming households in Los Ríos, Ecuador: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Smallholder farming households may produce food while remaining dependent on markets for household consumption. We examined whether household production diversity and exact production-self-consumption overlap were associated with market dependence, food insecurity, market-dependent vulnerability, and food-system buffer resilience among smallholder farming households in Los Ríos, Ecuador. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 133 households. Ten primary dietary food groups were classified as produced, self-consumed from own production, or purchased. The exact-overlap Farm-to-Diet Coupling Index (FDCI) represented the proportion of food groups produced that were also self-consumed. Modified Poisson models with HC3 robust standard errors were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs). RESULTS: Median household production diversity was 3 food groups (IQR: 1-4), the Self-consumed Food Group Diversity Proxy was 2 groups (IQR: 1-2), the FDCI was 0.50 (IQR 0.40-1.00), and the Market Food Dependency Index was 0.67 (IQR: 0.50-0.86). Production diversity was positively correlated with self-consumed food-group diversity (Spearman's ρ = 0.636; p < 0.001). Vegetables, fish, and red meat showed the largest purchase-production differences. Each additional food group produced was associated with a lower prevalence of high market dependence (aPR 0.708; 95% CI 0.603-0.832), as was each 0.10-unit increase in the FDCI (aPR 0.933; 95% CI 0.874-0.996). The FDCI estimate was less precise in several sensitivity analyses and was not independently associated with food insecurity, market-dependent vulnerability, or buffer resilience. CONCLUSION: Production diversity and exact farm-to-diet overlap captured distinct dimensions of household food acquisition. Both were associated with lower market dependence, but exact overlap was not a consistent indicator of broader food insecurity, vulnerability, or resilience. These findings support assessing production, self-consumption, and purchase as distinct pathways rather than assuming that production diversification alone improves household food security. This distinction may help nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs monitor production, household retention, and market acquisition as separate but interconnected pathways.