Ballots or Bullets? Investigating Youth Disposition and Drivers of Election-Related Violence in Southwestern Nigeria

Election-related violence poses a major threat to democratic stability in emerging democracies such as Nigeria. Several factors have been widely examined, less attention has been devoted to the youth dispositions to election-related violence. This study, therefore, investigated youth disposition to election-related violence as well as factors predisposing them to such behavior in southwestern Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design was considered proper for assessing existing conditions without manipulating variables. Youths aged 18–35 years living in Oyo, Osun, and Ondo States were purposively selected due to history of being politically active youth populations and prior records of election-related violence. A total of 1,174 youths were sampled using a multi-stage sampling procedure. In each state, two local government areas were randomly selected, followed by purposive selection of communities with high youth concentration and political activity. Data were collected using the Youth Disposition and Predisposition to Election-Related Violence Scale (r=0.72). Section A of the instrument captured demographic information, Section B measured youth disposition toward election-related violence, and Section C assessed predisposing factors. Findings revealed that youths exhibited a generally low disposition toward election-related violence (x̄=2.21: Threshold: 2.5), indicating weak endorsement of violence as a legitimate tool of political participation. However, pockets of tolerance for electoral manipulation and monetary inducement were observed. Analysis further showed that predisposing factors (x̄= 3.20: Threshold: 3.0) strongly influenced youth vulnerability to violent mobilization. These included past substance abuse, previous involvement in violent activities, and low levels of electoral participation and trust in political institutions. Several recommendations were made.