Zhe Wang, YingJian Wang, Jiayi Zhang, Yuechang Zhang, Shaoyang Xv, Long Zhang, Feng Wang, Dao Xin
We applied ten algorithms to establish multi-omics subtypes and evaluated 101 machine-learning combinations across three independent cohorts to generate a Consensus Machine Learning-driven Signature (CMLS).
Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) efficacy in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is limited by tumor microenvironment (TME) heterogeneity. Because traditional bulk-derived models lack spatial resolution, we developed an integrated framework connecting macroscopic survival risks to microscopic TME structures. We applied ten algorithms to establish multi-omics subtypes and evaluated 101 machine-learning combinations across three independent cohorts to generate a Consensus Machine Learning-driven Signature (CMLS). The signature's spatial and cellular origins were decoded using spatial transcriptomics (ST) and a 140,000-cell scRNA-seq atlas. Expression of key genes was experimentally validated via RT-qPCR in 17 paired ccRCC clinical tissues. We identified two molecular subtypes with distinct clinical and epigenetic profiles. SuperPC optimization yielded a 24-gene CMLS serving as an independent prognostic factor. scRNA-seq and ST deconvolution revealed these signals predominantly originate from cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and malignant epithelial cells, which collaborate to drive spatial immune exclusion. RT-qPCR confirmed significant overexpression of five core CMLS genes in ccRCC versus adjacent normal tissues. Low CMLS scores correlated with enhanced ICB responsiveness, whereas high-CMLS tumors demonstrated specific vulnerability to dasatinib and dabrafenib. The CMLS translates spatial immune-exclusion dynamics into a quantifiable metric, outperforming tumor mutational burden in predicting ICB benefits, providing a robust tool for patient stratification in ccRCC.