Political stability and the health effects of climate change in MENA countries

Abstract This study examines the interaction between political stability and climate change and their impact on health outcomes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1996–2023. Health is proxied by infant mortality, allowing for a more precise assessment of population vulnerability. The analysis employs a simultaneous equations framework estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to account for endogeneity and reverse causality, complemented by a Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model to distinguish between short-run and long-run dynamics while controlling for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that climate change significantly increases infant mortality, confirming its detrimental effect on health outcomes in MENA countries. Political stability, on the other hand, reduces infant mortality, indicating its crucial role in improving public health conditions. However, the interaction term between political stability and climate change is positive and statistically significant, suggesting that while political stability improves health, it does not fully offset the adverse effects of climate change. Instead, the net impact depends on the effectiveness of environmental and health policies implemented within stable governance frameworks. The findings highlight the importance of considering the joint role of governance and environmental factors in shaping health outcomes. From a policy perspective, strengthening political stability alone is not sufficient; it must be accompanied by effective climate policies and investments in resilient healthcare systems. This study contributes to the literature on sustainable development by providing empirical evidence relevant to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).