The burden of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria

Nigeria is undergoing a rapid epidemiological transition marked by a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside persistent communicable diseases. This shift poses substantial challenges for population health, health system capacity, and socioeconomic development. This review aims to synthesize contemporary epidemiological evidence on the burden of NCDs in Nigeria, with emphasis on prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), temporal trends, and major risk factors. A structured narrative review was conducted using 127 peer reviewed articles and 15 national or authoritative reports (total N = 142 sources) sourced from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, African Journals Online, World Health Organization publications, and Global Burden of Disease studies published between January 2000 and December 2025. From 142 included sources (127 peer reviewed articles; 15 grey literature reports), we identified substantial heterogeneity in NCD prevalence estimates, with hypertension ranging from 18.6% (North West) to 35.3% (urban Lagos) depending on measurement protocols. High quality community studies ( n = 8) consistently demonstrated higher urban vs. rural prevalence ratios (OR 1.4–2.1), while facility-based studies overestimated national burdens. NCD related DALYs increased by 21.3% (2010–2019), driven primarily by cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults aged 45–65. Critical evidence gaps emerged: only 3 longitudinal cohorts exist, rural Northern data are sparse (12% of studies), and incidence data are virtually absent. The review identified inadequate primary care integration and out of pocket expenditure (> 200 USD annually per household) as primary health system barriers. Nigeria’s escalating NCD burden underscores the need for robust surveillance, population-level prevention strategies, strengthened primary healthcare, and multisectoral action addressing underlying social determinants of health.