From cut-off to kick-off: Dynamic modeling and mitigating of the relative age effect

This study introduces a dynamical model to analyze and mitigate the Relative Age Effect (RAE) among male handball players in the French federation, from youth to professional levels. The RAE arises from age-based grouping, leading to psychological and behavioural (motor) differences among young athletes. Using system dynamics, the model simulates player movement and cumulative experience across cohorts, calibrated with data from the Fédération Française de Handball. The model incorporates a reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies initial advantages in size and weight, enhancing perceived skills and training opportunities. Various policy scenarios are explored to assess their impact on reducing the RAE. Results suggest that modifying cut-off dates could be the most effective strategy, potentially improving talent detection and reducing attrition in young cohorts. This research offers valuable insights for decision-makers aiming to address the RAE in handball and other team sports.