Determinants of Life Expectancy in the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis.

IntroductionLife expectancy represents one of the most comprehensive indicators of population health and healthcare system performance. This study investigates the economic, demographic, and mortality-related determinants of life expectancy across six European Union Member States from a health economics perspective.MethodsOECD data for six European Union Member States (Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Germany, Italy, and Spain) covering the period 2011-2021 were analyzed using panel-data fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. Countries were included to capture substantial heterogeneity in economic development, demographic dynamics, and health system performance within the European Union. Variables exhibiting conceptual overlap or strong multicollinearity with life expectancy, including general population size indicators, were excluded during model refinement to improve interpretability and estimation robustness. Four complementary model specifications were estimated to separately evaluate the effects of economic development, demographic renewal, and mortality burden.ResultsMortality-related indicators displayed the strongest statistical associations with life expectancy. General mortality burden and potential years of life lost due to accidents were negatively associated with longevity, although these relationships should be interpreted in light of the conceptual proximity between mortality-based measures and life expectancy. GDP per capita remained positively associated with life expectancy, although its explanatory power declined after mortality and demographic variables were incorporated, suggesting diminishing marginal returns of economic development. The crude birth rate, interpreted as a proxy for broader demographic resilience rather than a direct determinant of longevity, maintained a positive association with life expectancy across the full-sample model specifications.ConclusionSustainable improvements in life expectancy depend less on economic growth alone and more on reducing preventable mortality, strengthening preventive healthcare, and promoting demographic resilience. By interpreting avoidable mortality as both a public health challenge and a structural economic cost, the study provides evidence to support integrated health, demographic, and economic policies aimed at reducing health disparities across European Union Member States.