Trends in HIV detection, AIDS detection, and ADIS mortality in Tocantins, Brazil, 2015-2023: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal evolution of epidemiological indicators related to HIV/AIDS in the state of Tocantins between 2015 and 2023 and to assess potential changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An ecological time-series study was conducted using secondary data from national health information systems. Annual rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. Trends were estimated using Prais-Winsten regression, and pandemic-associated changes were assessed using interrupted time-series analysis. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2023, 1,854 HIV cases, 2,026 AIDS cases, and 511 AIDS-related deaths were recorded in Tocantins. The mean annual rates were 13.09 HIV cases, 14.32 AIDS cases, and 3.61 AIDS-related deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Prais-Winsten analysis indicated stationary trends for HIV detection, AIDS detection, and AIDS mortality rates. In the interrupted time-series analysis, no significant immediate changes were observed after 2020. A significant increase was observed only in the trend of the AIDS detection rate during the post-interruption period (β = 2.67; 95%CI 0.26; 5.09; p=0.036), whereas HIV detection and AIDS mortality rates remained stable. CONCLUSION: Trends in HIV detection, AIDS detection, and AIDS mortality rates remained stable in Tocantins between 2015 and 2023. However, an increase in the trend of the AIDS detection rate was observed after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting potential repercussions of this period on the dynamics of disease diagnosis and reporting.