Molecular epidemiology, spatiotemporal patterns, and economic impact of African swine fever in Meghalaya, India.

BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF), caused by Asfivirus haemorrhagiae, entered India through its northeastern frontiers in 2020. Following the initial outbreaks in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the next state to report ASF was Meghalaya, a tribal dwelling, pork-deficit state landlocked between Assam and the neighboring country of Bangladesh. MATERIALS: In this study, we undertook an exploratory spatio-temporal analysis and economic cost analysis based on a total of 115 outbreak events involving 1603 animals were recorded involving 7 of the erstwhile 11 districts between July 2020 and April 2025. Additionally, we also regularly screened field samples from various districts of Meghalaya and tried to understand the molecular epidemiology based on p72 and p54 based phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Phylogenetic analysis of representative strains from the outbreaks based on p72 and p54 regions assigned the strains to Genotype II, and more specifically sub-genotype IIa, respectively. Economic losses directly arising from assumed pork sales of affected animals yielded a conservative estimate of INR 2,74,45,883 (USD 305,225). Further, exploratory spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated clustering of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. Moreover, exploratory temporal autocorrelation analysis hinted at weak but insignificant seasonal (p > 0.05) and annual trends at lag 12 frequency, which was also the feature observed in temporal decomposition of ASF outbreaks. Conclusions: The current study offers baseline data on which forecasting models can be developed and effectively prevent and contain future outbreaks by collaborative efforts of the stakeholders.