Simone Daniotti, Johannes Wachs, Xiangnan Feng, Frank Neffke
Generative coding tools promise big productivity gains, but uneven uptake could widen skill and income gaps. We train a neural classifier to spot artificial intelligence (AI)-generated Python functions in more than 30 million GitHub commits by 160,097 software developers, tracking how fast, and where, these tools take hold. Currently, AI writes an estimated 29% of Python functions in the US-a shrinking lead over other countries. We estimate that quarterly output, measured in online code contributions, consequently increased by 3.6%. AI seems to benefit experienced, senior-level developers: They increased productivity and more readily expanded into new domains of software development. By contrast, early-career developers showed no significant benefits from AI adoption. This may widen skill gaps and reshape future career ladders in software development.