Modeling public engagement in political discourse on Facebook in times of political crisis: the case of the four-cycle election loop

Purpose This study investigates how public engagement in political discourse on Facebook evolves during periods of continuous political instability. While prior research has examined engagement drivers during routine and election periods, this study focuses on how political communication and public responsiveness change across repeated election cycles under sustained crisis conditions. Design/methodology/approach Using computational methods, we examined more than 8,000 posts published by leading Israeli politicians and millions of public responses across four election cycles (2019–2021). The analysis tracks changes in sentiment, content features and communication patterns and examines their associations with public engagement as the political instability persisted. Findings Results reveal several notable patterns. Although negative sentiment dominated across all four campaigns, negativity consistently declined over time. Contrary to expectations, longer posts were associated with higher engagement. Overall, public engagement increased during the first three election cycles and then stabilized slightly in the fourth, suggesting competing dynamics of heightened political attention and gradual fatigue during prolonged instability. Originality/value This study provides a longitudinal examination of political discourse and engagement during an extended period of political instability. By jointly examining sentiment, content characteristics and engagement indicators, it contributes to understanding how online political communication evolves under prolonged crisis conditions and how competing dynamics of emotional amplification, heightened public attention and electoral fatigue may shape engagement over time. Peer review The peer review history for this article is available at: Link to the website.