The evolution of demand for last-mile fulfillment services in the US: a regionalized perspective

Purpose Demand for last-mile fulfillment services (LMFS) has increased significantly over the last several years, with the increase occurring at different rates over time. Further, the literature presents conflicting findings regarding whether urban or rural consumers display higher demand for LMFS. Thus, to inform fulfillment network decisions, we explore demand for LMFS in the United States (US) over time and in response to a shock. Design/methodology/approach We study this topic over the period of 2010–2023, with COVID-19 in 2020 serving as a shock. We utilize data from NielsenIQ's Consumer Panel Dataset and apply discontinuous growth models. Findings Urban areas saw a larger and faster increase in demand for LMFS from 2010 through 2019 as compared to rural areas. Following the onset of COVID-19, urban areas experienced a greater increase in demand, and this increase was sustained through 2023. Conditional on a geographic area's ruralness, areas that had the highest levels of demand for LMFS prior to COVID-19 exhibited a smaller increase in 2020. Originality/value The literature has mostly employed cross-sectional survey data and presents conflicting findings. To inform practice and last-mile supply chain management literature, we reconcile these conflicts by exploring demand for LMFS over time with transaction data.