Drivers of banana re-infection in newly planted gardens in banana bunchy top disease endemic zones: Implications for the recovery of banana production.

Understanding how crop pests and diseases spread is essential for designing effective integrated pest and disease management strategies. This study investigated the landscape, field design, and management factors associated with the persistence and re-infection of Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD) in endemic smallholder systems. We surveyed 121 banana gardens that had been re-established with virus-free tissue-culture plantlets three years earlier to identify the combination of conditions linked to lower disease incidence, to identify candidate parameters to test in controlled evaluation of disease management. BBTD prevalence was positively associated with higher banana density within a 60 m radius of the field, increased aphid abundance, greater varietal diversity and the use of locally sourced planting material. In contrast, higher altitude, the presence of hedgerows and frequent roguing of symptomatic plants were negatively associated with disease incidence. Model averaging showed that aphid prevalence, surrounding banana density, reported roguing, and seed source appeared in more than half of the best-performing models, highlighting their possible role in reducing re-infection and potential yield losses. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated, community-based replanting with certified virus-free planting material, consistent roguing guided by farmer symptom recognition, and the strategic use of barrier hedges or mixed cropping systems to limit aphid dispersal. Further research should explore optimal species combinations and landscape configurations to strengthen long-term BBTD suppression in smallholder production systems.