Economic Loss due to Health Funding Cuts as Distributed Across Geospatial Units

In 2025, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) proposed a 15% cap on indirect research costs and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) terminated or froze over 5,000 grants. These policy changes would lead to billions of dollars in annual future economic losses and jeopardize billions of dollars in ongoing economic activity associated with medical research. Assessing the local economic impacts of cuts to NIH research requires accounting for commuting flows between where individuals work and live rather than assuming that impacts are confined to affected institutions. We estimate that 60% of U.S. counties will experience over $100,000 in economic losses from the indirect cost caps if they are implemented -- far more widespread than the 12% of counties where NIH-supported grantees are located. Likewise under a commuter model, 22% of counties could lose more than $100,000 due to NIH grant terminations and freezes, again more widespread than the 4% of counties containing affected institutions. Incorporating commuting flows and accounting for economic multipliers of research funding reveals the extent to which biomedical research funding cuts will lead to substantial economic losses in local communities throughout the U.S.