Modeling the impacts of budget reductions at the U.S. NIH on research and innovation.

Stable public funding underpins biomedical innovation, yet the U.S. research system remains vulnerable to swings in federal budgets. We developed BRIDGE (Biomedical Research Investment Dynamics and Growth Evaluation), a simulation model linking NIH funding to new drug approvals, workforce dynamics, and scientific output. Using 47 longitudinal data measures from 1995-2024, validated against historical trends and projecting outcomes through 2050, we examined multiple funding trajectories, including stable growth, flat budgets, large reductions, and later restorations. Results show that across scenarios, even temporary disruptions create lasting setbacks for drug development, researcher training, and basic science. Later funding increases cannot repair the damage for decades, with persistent losses in capacity and output that highlight how fragile the system is to short-term shocks and why stable public investment is essential for long-term innovation. For example, if the NIH budget were cut by 40% in 2026, even doubling that reduced budget at the start of the next administration would still require 36 years to recover the cumulative loss in novel drug approvals.