Effects of climate change and human activities on the habitat suitability of Zeugodacus tau (Walker, 1849) in China: perspectives from ensemble modelling and niche analysis.

Climate change and human activities are significantly affecting the potential distribution pattern of pests, and the study of the spreading trend of the quarantine pest Zeugodacus tau (Walker, 1849) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China is important for the development of scientific and effective prevention and control strategies. In this study, we applied ensemble modelling and niche analysis to assess changes in the suitable distribution area of Z. tau under different climate scenarios in China at current and in the future. The results indicated that Z. tau was mainly distributed in central and southern China in the current period, and climate change might promote the expansion of its suitable habitat. Meanwhile, the cumulative variance explained for both the current and future periods exceeded 92%. Additionally, Schoener's D values ranged from 0.46 to 0.57 and Hellinger's distance (I) values ranged from 0.62 to 0.70, suggesting moderate overlap of ecological niches of Z. tau under future climate scenarios. This study provides an important basis for the prediction and assessment of Z. tau dispersal risk in the context of climate change, as well as theoretical support for pest monitoring and control decision-making, which is of positive significance for the promotion of sustainable development of agriculture and forestry.