Analysis of influencing factors for syphilis serofast and development and evaluation of a predictive model.

BACKGROUND: With the rising incidence of syphilis in recent decades, the number of patients with syphilis serofast has also increased, posing challenges to clinical management of patients and increasing the social burden. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to analyze influencing factors associated with syphilis serofast, develop and validate a predictive model for clinical prevention of syphilis serofast. METHODS: A total of 373 syphilis patients were selected as the study subjects. Using a multivariate logistic regression model to analyze the relevant influencing factors of syphilis serofast, and the receiver operating curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the predictive performance of relevant influencing factors for syphilis serofast. Additionally, 187 syphilis patients were selected to verify the performance of the aforementioned model. RESULTS: Among the 373 syphilis patients, serofast occurred in 134 patients (35.92%). Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that syphilis stage (SS), baseline TRUST titer (BTT), and TRUST titer changes at three months post-treatment (TTC-3M) were closely associated with the occurrence of syphilis serofast. Further ROC curve analysis revealed that the combined prediction of serofast by these three factors yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.84-0.91, P < 0.001). Subsequently, the predictive performance of the aforementioned model was evaluated, achieving an actual sensitivity of 0.88 and a specificity of 0.81 in 187 syphilis patients. CONCLUSIONS: SS, BTT, and TTC-3M are key factors influencing the occurrence of syphilis serofast. The predictive model constructed based on these three factors exhibits good efficacy and possesses clinical application value.