What gray whales are telling us about ecosystem change in the Pacific Arctic

Abstract Gray whales in the eastern North Pacific have been in steep decline for the past six years, and recent estimates of abundance, reproductive output, and strandings suggest this decline is continuing and could be accelerating. These developments have been particularly alarming as gray whales are considered a species of low conservation concern given their strong recovery from post-whaling levels. However, their recovery has coincided with rapid ocean warming, leading to reduced sea ice and increased northward transport of Pacific water through the Bering Strait that is impacting prey quality and availability in gray whales’ sub-Arctic and Arctic feeding areas. The recent population downturn may in fact be a predictable result of the convergence of a strong recovery with compounding climate impacts.