Future health and economic impacts of extreme heat on older adults: a subnational analysis for Europe

Abstract This study quantifies the effects of rising temperatures due to climate change on the health of older adults and estimates the associated economic costs across 331 European regions. Using projections under climate and socio-economic pathways (SSP–RCP combinations), estimates are produced for 2030, 2050, and 2070. Mortality and morbidity figures do not differ greatly between scenarios in the short term, but they do in the long term. By 2070, mortality is estimated to range between 213 and 436 thousand cases in the low- and high-emission scenarios respectively, and morbidity is estimated to range between 127 and 261 thousand cases respectively in all of Europe. The short-term economic burden of morbidity is estimated at US$312–332 million under low- and high-emission scenarios, increasing to US$462–929 million by 2070. The willingness to pay to avoid morbidity events is valued at US$189–204 billion in the short term and US$283–581 billion by 2070. Mortality costs based on the value of a statistical life are projected to reach US$774–825 billion (3.6%–4% of European GDP) in 2030 under SSP1–RCP2.6 and SSP5–RCP8.5, respectively, and up to US$2.3 trillion (6.4% of GDP) by 2070 under high emissions, or half that amount under low emissions. When mortality is evaluated using the value of a life year, costs are lower yet remain substantial. These results highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies and the strong economic benefits of emission mitigation, as well as the importance of localised responses to address regional vulnerabilities.