Pathways to hybridity: an analytical framework for the study of competing diffusion forces in EU democracy promotion

The global resurgence of authoritarianism has fundamentally altered the international context for democracy promotion. How do domestic elites in the countries exposed simultaneously to democratic and authoritarian diffusion forces respond to these competing external influences? This article develops an analytical framework to study the interplay between competing democratic and authoritarian diffusion forces in the international arena and domestic elite responses to an increasingly diverse menu of external actors’ tools, policies, and narratives. In the European Union (EU) context, authoritarian influences directly challenge the EU’s tools, narratives and approaches, opening pathways to hybridity. The framework conceptualises the impact of competing influences by distinguishing between the creation and persistence of cross-border patronage networks and the transfer of ideological narratives. We examine how patronage and ideas have affected countries in the EU as well as its neighbourhood, pointing to different member states, accession candidates, and neighbouring countries to illustrate the dynamics at play. We conclude that the emergence of competing diffusion forces represents an important challenge to the EU’s democracy promotion efforts that needs to be addressed more systematically in the EU’s efforts to shape democratic outcomes in its neighbourhood.