Good governance in higher education: a PLS-SEM and ANN approach to understanding the role of transparency, accountability and the rule of law in predicting institutional performance

Good governance is increasingly recognized as a key determinant of higher education performance, particularly in fragile and post-conflict contexts marked by institutional capacity constraints and regulatory challenges. However, empirical evidence on the governance–performance relationship remains limited in such settings. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of transparency, accountability and the rule of law on the performance of higher education institutions (HEIs) in Mogadishu, Somalia. Data were collected from a representative sample of 220 academic staff, administrative staff and students and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The results revealed that transparency, accountability and the rule of law exert significant positive effects on higher education performance, with the rule of law emerging as the strongest predictor. Moreover, the ANN analysis confirmed the dominant role of the rule of law, followed by accountability and transparency. This study highlights the need for policymakers and university leaders to prioritize governance reforms to improve higher education performance in fragile contexts.