Climate change, rural out-migration, and food security nexus in Nepal

Climate change affects the livelihood and food security of Nepalese smallholder farmers. Rural out-migration has increased remarkably, rising to 4.35 persons per 1000 inhabitants in 2022, potentially impacting agricultural production in the country. Therefore, the objective of this study was to analyse the nexus among climate change, migration, and food security. We aimed to identify the factors influencing rural-out migration, including climate change, and the impact of migration on household food security. The study analysed 400 selected households using multistage sampling in three agroecological zones in Nepal. The data were analysed using propensity score matching and endogenous switching regression models. Our results indicate that climate change, age, social group, and off-farm activities significantly increase the likelihood of rural out-migration, whereas education reduces the likelihood of rural out-migration. The endogenous switching regression model revealed that rural out-migration has a significant positive impact on household food security. Based on households’ self-reported responses, migration is most commonly caused by education-related opportunities, limited access to fertile agricultural land, and climate-related shocks such as droughts, floods, and landslides. Our research underscores the urgent need for robust policies that encourage smallholder farmers to remain on their land and promote rural development opportunities. Based on our findings, we propose comprehensive strategies that integrate on-farm and off-farm employment opportunities, along with investments in education and agricultural innovation, to support smallholder farmers and enhance food security.