Remote sensing-based failure risk assessment of Himalayan glacial lakes due to seismic-induced water waves

The Himalayan region is distinguished by a high density of glacial lakes and frequent seismic activity. Under seismic actions, glacial lakes are prone to produce large-amplitude surge waves, potentially leading to the overtopping failure of the glacial lake dams. This study systematically investigates the seismic-induced water waves (SIWWs) of glacial lakes through shaking table experiments and OpenFOAM-based simulations. The key findings are as follows: (1) The response of SIWWs is primarily controlled by seismic frequency, peak ground acceleration, and water depth, with little sensitivity to seismic duration. (2) Building upon these controlling parameters, a calculation formula is developed to estimate the maximum SIWW height, which is further combined with hydraulic thresholds for sediment mobilization to establish a critical criterion for glacial lake overtopping failure. (3) By integrating regional probabilistic seismic hazard levels with remote sensing data, a risk classification framework for glacial lake failure under SIWWs is proposed and demonstrated through a case study of the Gyirong Valley in the central Himalaya. This remote sensing-based framework provides a practical tool for assessing glacial lake failure risk under earthquakes and contributes to GLOF risk mitigation in the Himalayan region.