Wheat expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado: drivers, land use changes, and policy implications

Wheat is widely recognized as an essential food for both global and Brazilian food security. Brazil has a long-standing structural dependence on wheat imports, making increases in domestic production crucial for reducing this reliance. In an effort to mitigate this dependence, wheat cultivation has expanded into the Brazilian Cerrado in recent decades, creating new opportunities in nontraditional wheat-growing regions. This study analyzes the main factors driving wheat expansion in the Cerrado between 1988 and 2024 using a dynamic panel econometric model. The results indicate that wheat expansion is strongly associated with farmers’ accumulated experience, technological development, and irrigation, as well as with the presence of soybean production, which indirectly supports wheat cultivation through shared infrastructure and production systems. In contrast, wheat competes for land with other crops – particularly corn, cotton, and beans – making relative crop profitability a key condition for the continuation of this expansion.