Pandemic politics: electoral outcomes for incumbents during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic challenged political leaders worldwide, demanding swift action. The virus has had severe consequences for public health, economic activity, and personal freedoms. A question is to what extent these unusual events have affected the incumbent parties’ chances of winning elections again. In response, this paper examines the links between the outcome of legislative elections held in 2020–2023 and the governmental decisions regarding pandemic stringency, fiscal support measures, and the effects of the pandemic in terms of excessive deaths and economic slowdown. Using econometric tools and a sample of 79 countries, we find mixed results on COVID-related variables. The evidence does not point to a robust association between stricter containment measures and incumbents’ electoral prospects. The overall stringency index has weak and inconsistent associations, while restrictions on public gatherings are negatively correlated with re-election probabilities only in more saturated specifications. Similarly, higher COVID-19 mortality is associated with lower re-election probabilities in some specifications, although this relationship is not statistically significant in others. Among institutional variables, greater political fractionalization is correlated with lower chances of incumbent success, while larger pre-pandemic parliamentary seat shares are associated with higher re-election probabilities. Finally, fiscal support and macroeconomic controls show limited and inconsistent associations.