Predicting Sustainable Consumer-Brand Relationships in the Green Beauty Sector: A Machine Learning Approach in an Emerging Market Context

This study examines how brand- and sustainability-related factors predict four selected consumer–brand outcomes—brand awareness, brand association, brand loyalty, and brand trust—in the green beauty sector of an emerging market. Grounded in consumer-based brand equity and brand relationship quality, data from 500 South African consumers were analyzed using machine learning models. The results show that quality perception, price perception, and green beauty product attitude are key predictors across outcomes. Brand trust and brand loyalty are the most predictable outcomes, whereas brand awareness is the least predictable. Overall, the findings show that green beauty brand outcomes follow distinct predictive logics.