Integrated GIS-AHP approach for agroforestry planning in semi-arid regions – from data to decision

Agroforestry systems offer sustainable land management solutions for semi-arid regions facing land degradation, erratic rainfall, and declining soil fertility. This study developed a GIS-based multi-criteria framework integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess biophysical suitability for moderate-intensity silvo-agricultural systems in the Jhansi district, Bundelkhand region, India. Seventeen thematic layers representing climate (rainfall, temperature), soil properties (SOC, nitrogen, pH, CEC, bulk density, texture), topography (slope, elevation), vegetation indices (NDVI, NDMI), land use, and accessibility were standardized and integrated using AHP-derived weights. Climate (34.0%) and soil fertility (25.9%) emerged as the primary determinants, followed by topography (15.9%), ecology (12.1%), land use (6.8%), road access (3.3%), and water proximity (2.0%). Results identified 48.00 km2 (1.25% of the analyzed agricultural land) with Very High suitability and 1,472.70 km2 (38.32%) with high suitability, totalling 1,520.70 km2 (39.57%) as highly suitable areas. Garautha tehsil (sub-district administrative unit) ranked first with a mean suitability score of 3.75, followed by Mauranipur (3.60), Tahrauli (3.38), Moth (3.15), and Jhansi (2.98). Sensitivity analysis across six alternative weight scenarios demonstrated stable classification (Spearman’s ρ = 1.00). The suitability map provides an evidence base for targeting agroforestry interventions aligned with National Agroforestry Policy objectives.