The coupling coordination and dynamic interactions between the regional digital economy and just transition: evidence from China

The digital economy and just transition represent two fundamental structural transformations shaping China's high-quality development under the “dual-carbon” strategy. However, whether digital expansion aligns with social equity objectives remains an open question. To address this gap, this study constructs comprehensive evaluation systems for both the digital economy and just transition, measures their coupling coordination degree, and further employs a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model to examine their dynamic interaction mechanisms. The results show that although the coupling level between the digital economy and just transition is relatively high, the coordination level remains low but steadily improving, resulting in an overall moderate yet continuously enhancing coupling coordination degree. Second, a bidirectional causal relationship exists between the two systems. In the short term, the digital economy promotes just transition, while just transition temporarily constrains digital development; both exhibit self-reinforcing mechanisms. In the long run, the digital economy's self-accumulation effect weakens, whereas just transition demonstrates stronger persistence, and their interactive effects gradually diminish over time. Finally, digital economy growth is mainly driven by its own accumulation, whereas just transition improvement initially relies on internal momentum and later benefits from digital economy expansion. These findings suggest that enhancing coordination mechanisms between technological transformation and social equity policies is essential for sustaining long-term high-quality development. Policymakers should promote inclusive digital transformation, strengthen social protection frameworks, and design institutional arrangements that synchronise technological upgrading with equitable transition objectives.