Exploring the effects of urban morphology and its spatial heterogeneity on LST: a quantitative analysis of seasonal and diurnal variations

This study employs statistical analysis to examine the impact of urban morphology on land surface temperature (LST). The findings reveal notable differences in LST across various Local Climate Zone (LCZ) types. The LST of building LCZs is significantly higher than natural LCZs. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanation analysis highlights that the influence of urban morphology on LST shows clear seasonal and diurnal patterns. In daytime, Floor Area Ratio is the most significant contributor to temperature variation. In contrast, at nighttime, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Building Height play a more dominant role. Interestingly, BH exhibits a bidirectional regulatory effect across different seasonal and diurnal cycles. Furthermore, the application of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) confirms that the relationship between urban morphology and LST is subject to spatial heterogeneity. Among the LCZs, LCZ9 shows the greatest variability in factor contribution, indicating the need for tailored interventions, while LCZ4 exhibits more homogeneous effects. This research integrates Light Gradient Boosting Machine with MGWR models, challenging the traditional static approach to studying the urban thermal environment and underscoring the importance of seasonal and spatial variations. The results provide valuable insights for urban thermal environment planning and suggest strategies for mitigating Urban Heat Island effects.