Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and influencing factors of synergistic development of green building industry : a case study in China

Amid the global climate and energy crises, developing green buildings has become the key to the low-carbon transition of the construction industry. However, academic attention to the collaborative development of China’s green building industry (GBISD) remains relatively limited, and the exploration of its spatiotemporal heterogeneity laws and the spatiotemporal effects of core influencing factors is still insufficient. To fill this research gap, this study constructs a multi-dimensional analytical framework of “subject-factor-path-goal” based on synergy theory. Combining the AHP-CRITIC combined weighting method, composite system synergy degree model, Dagum Gini coefficient, and Spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) model, it conducts an empirical study on the GBISD level of 27 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022. Its core goal is to reveal the characteristics of spatio-temporal heterogeneity, spatial correlation laws, and spatio-temporal effects of influencing factors, so as to provide scientific support for industrial synergy optimization and regional green development. The findings reveal that: (1) Provincial levels of GBISD exhibit sustained growth with enhanced resilience while demonstrating emerging regional polarization and spatial diffusion effects. (2) The three major regions (Eastern, Central, and Western China) show differentiated development trajectories with significant spatial differences. (3) The overall GBISD distribution displays clustering patterns, with pronounced agglomeration effects in central and eastern China, whereas the spatial correlations remain weak in most provinces. (4) The GBISD performance in Northwest and Northeast China is suboptimal, which is related to insufficient attention to low-carbon development and restricted construction industry scale. The impacts of factors such as technological innovation, government attention to green and low-carbon development, and green finance exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. This study enriches the theoretical system and quantitative methods of GBISD, and provides targeted practical strategies for the low-carbon transition of the construction industry and regional synergistic governance.