Terrorist Targeting and Decision-Making: A Red Team Approach

This study investigates the extent to which two publicly available targeting frameworks (EVIL DONE and TRACK) explain or predict terrorist target selection and decision-making. Red teaming exercises involving physical and virtual hostile reconnaissance simulated the processes involved in terrorist targeting. Participants in the exercises recorded their considerations which were coded and analyzed. Results showed that neither framework provides a close match for the decision-making processes observed. Several possible factors are missing, and neither framework distinguishes between factors in terms of importance or frequency. Four additional factors emerged from the data, including Secondary Impact, one of the most frequently cited considerations. We also propose that the absence of valence, of organizational and ideological variation, and of a time dimension are further shortcomings of these frameworks.