Spatial Prioritization of Ecotourism Areas Under Land-Use Land-Cover Change: A Case Study in Central Mexico

Deforestation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change threaten the viability of temperate forests in Mexico, yet few studies jointly assess deforestation risk and ecotourism potential to guide sustainable forestry. We developed a spatially explicit framework for two municipalities in the Sierra Norte de Puebla (Chignahuapan and Zacatlán) that combines multitemporal LULC mapping (2000, 2011, 2022), Random Forest – based deforestation risk modeling, and Analytic Hierarchy Process – Geographic Information System (AHP – GIS) ecotourism suitability for hiking, picnicking, and mountain biking. Forest cover declined by 17.5% in Chignahuapan and 6.5% in Zacatlán, mainly due to agricultural expansion and urban growth. Deforestation risk was spatially heterogeneous, with fragmented hotspots in Chignahuapan and more contiguous high-risk zones in Zacatlán. Overlaying risk and suitability showed that Zacatlán concentrates a larger share of medium- and high-priority ecotourism areas, while both municipalities contain forest stands where ecotourism can function as a conservation-oriented land-use option. The resulting priority maps identify where trail networks and recreation nodes could effectively reinforce incentives to maintain forest cover. Our approach illustrates how available remote-sensing data and modeling tools can be integrated into decision-support products for municipal forest management, helping align ecotourism development with sustainable forestry and regional land-use planning.