Sovereignty under siege: state response, fragility and the political ecology of banditry in Sokoto, Nigeria

The study explores the dynamics of banditry, highlighting threats to state sovereignty in Sokoto that remained anomalously stable compared to other north-western states in Nigeria until 2020. This paradox is explained by the cross-border geography, governance structures, and delayed state fragility. This study interrogates when and why this border state transitioned from peripheral to critical theatre, revealing the emergence of stationary banditry and proto-insurgent actors. Integrating State Fragility Theory and Political Ecology of Violence, thirty-one qualitative interviews, six focus groups, and two case studies were conducted across five local government areas. The study reveals territorial loss rather than criminality: armed groups control villages, appointing administrators and extracting taxation, a de facto replacement of state authority. The emergence of Lakurawa signals convergence between criminal profiteering and jihadist insurgency. Multi-level government interventions (military operations, amnesty programs, vigilante support) failed due to coordination deficits, corruption, and failure to address governance collapse or resource conflicts. Gendered vulnerabilities, agricultural devastation, and displacement were common to victims. This study provides empirical evidence of the insurgent-bandit nexus positioning Sokoto for sovereignty crisis. Sustainable restoration requires not fragmented stabilisation but joint Sokoto-Tahoua cross-border protocols, administrative restoration in captured territories, and differentiated responses targeting ideological versus economic actors.