When Prices Rise, So Does Crime: A Time Series Analysis of the Association between Inflation and Crime in Argentina, 1973–2022

Argentina’s robbery rates are among the highest in the world, and for decades the nation has endured consistently high inflation and at times hyperinflation. There is little research on the association between inflation and acquisitive crime in Argentina, but given the widespread negative effects of inflation on other outcomes in Argentina, it is important to know if it is associated with crime. We examined this association. Our unit of analysis was the Argentina-year from 1973 to 2022 (N = 50). Outcome variables were total acquisitive crime (sum of official robbery and theft categories) and homicide rates. We obtained acquisitive crime data from (Sistema, Citation2023) and inflation data from the World Bank (2023). We employed dynamic time series modeling. Results indicated that inflation is associated with both outcomes across time. Drawing from rational choice and routine activity theories, inflation may be associated with both the motivation and opportunity for crime by expanding illicit markets, especially for stolen durable goods.