A market for war? the reinforcing logics of Europe’s security turn ¹

The global political order is in a moment of historical change after decades of relative geopolitical stability. I argue that a combination of the second Trump Administration’s pivot away from the transatlantic alliance alongside an aggressively revisionist Russia may produce a new path for the European Union. My argument rests on an application of the history of political development and state formation to the EU case. Three reinforcing logics around markets, identity, and security have the potential to accelerate the movement of political authority to the EU level while reshaping Europe as a polity. I illustrate this potential with a discussion of the newly emerging European military industrial complex. But I caution that there are major tensions in attempting to respond to geopolitical threat without the robust processes and norms needed to ensure democratic rule over Europe’s security turn.