The Implications of Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing (NOAH) Sales for Residential Mobility

Problem, research strategy, and findings Most low-income renters in the United States live in naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH), which refers to housing that is below market rate and does not receive direct public subsidy. In this study, we examined the sale of NOAH buildings in two California regions (Los Angeles and the East Bay) and explored whether these sales increase the likelihood that a tenant moves out. Using a novel data set that links consumer reference data to parcel-level property data, we found that NOAH sales have heightened since the COVID-19 pandemic and that these properties are increasingly being bought by professional investors. We also found that tenants are more likely to move if their building is sold, suggesting that NOAH sales may be contributing to housing precarity, even in the absence of gentrification. Future research on NOAH is needed to build on this study, including methodological refinements in identifying NOAH properties, understanding NOAH dynamics in other urban contexts (including weaker housing markets), and landlord practices.Takeaway for practice This study provides evidence on the frequency of NOAH sales in higher-cost rental markets in California and reveals that these sales may undermine housing stability by increasing the likelihood of tenant moves. It has implications for city, county, and state governments interested in developing strategies for NOAH preservation, as well as for tenant protection policies.