Beyond humanitarianism: violence risks in African refugee-hosting states

This article examines refugee-related political violence (RRPV) in African host states between 2018 and May 2025. Drawing on an original dataset of 272 incidents across 39 countries and a refined six-fold typology, it documents substantial variation in the prevalence and forms of violence, with attacks involving transnational violent non-state actors (VNSAs) emerging as the most common pattern. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the study identifies border porosity as the most consistent necessary condition across several RRPV types. For VNSA-related violence, two robust pathways arise: the joint presence of active armed groups and porous borders, and the combination of ethnically excluded refugee groups with restrictive rights regimes. Other forms of RRPV display fragmented, locally contingent causal patterns shaped by refugee population size, state fragility, camp isolation, and governance practices. The findings highlight the heterogeneous, multi-causal nature of RRPV and challenge security narratives that overstate refugees’ agency in producing violence. The article contributes new evidence on displacement-related insecurity and offers policy-relevant insights for mitigating violence in refugee-hosting areas.