Luis Sanchez Russo
Portugal’s third election in three years, forced by a dispute over scrutiny of the Prime Minister’s private enterprise, deepened the systemic shock begun in 2024: amidst electoral fatigue, the far right continued its ascent, the party system continued its transformation from bipolarism into an unstable tripolar system, and the left crumbled. Immigration became increasingly more salient as polarisation and electoral participation climbed, largely benefiting Chega, Europe’s fastest-rising populist right-wing party. In an unprecedented development, Chega overtook the Socialists to become the main opposition party, in part fuelled by mobilisation of abstentionists, disinformation on social media, and support from younger, less educated and less affluent voters. The Socialists lost ground in traditional strongholds and were punished for provoking the election, enabling a narrow centre-right win. With Socialists and Social Democrats together barely capturing half the electorate, Chega proclaimed the end of bipolarism. Despite the parties in the new Montenegro cabinet holding only a parliamentary minority, the right controls over two-thirds of seats, opening the door to constitutional reform against a landscape of political instability and the politicisation of crime and migration. This may further strengthen Chega’s rise in the future, with its electorate distrusting and undervaluing liberal democratic institutions.