Tristan Bunnell, Simon Probert
The year 2026 marked the 30th anniversary of the founding of the first overseas branch of a British private school, when London’s Dulwich College in 1996 had opened an offshoot on Phuket Island. Since then, the exportation and quasi-replication of Britain’s private schools have involved 50 institutions establishing about 150 branches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the growth and development of this largely under-reported phenomenon, exploring how the expansion has involved four distinct ‘waves’. The current ‘fourth wave’, beginning in 2021 has been characterised by a post-China expansion with branches emerging in unexpected areas such as Europe, Japan, the United States and West Africa. At the same time, new providers have appeared, some ambitiously intent on creating systems of branches across several nations. We report on the current level of market concentration, with the biggest 10 players led by London’s Harrow Schoolhaving over half the market, and the level of market saturation, particularly in Bangkok and Shanghai. We discuss the possible implications of the current scene and speculate from the growth patterns that a new wave might appear, in 2027, based on expansion into areas beyond Asia and China, and involving new markets and players.